10-2 Yield Curve / Interest Rates

전망 요약

Political interference may lower short-term rates but raise long-term yields due to inflation fears, stretching the curve and increasing recession risks.

주요 포인트

• Short-term rates may fall if the market bets on a political appointee cutting rates aggressively.
• Long-term yields (10-year) are likely to rise as investors fear long-term inflation from loose monetary policy.
• A widening spread between short and long-term yields makes the economy more 'shock-prone' and closer to a recession.